Thinking About 300 Wins One Year Later
Last year I put up a post on the likelihood of another pitcher winning 300 games. For my research, I looked at the career wins progression of the four last pitchers to reach that milestone–Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, and Johnson. The research showed that a pitcher should have 125 wins by the end of the season in which they turn 30. They will also have to average 16.3 wins per season for their career. Here’s how the pitchers on that list look one year later:
CC Sabathia – 149-85 – Age 29. This guy is pretty far ahead of the requisite pace for 300 wins. And, as much as I hate it and his Yankee pin stripes, he’s got the frame to last. As a Red Sox fan, I hope his love of cheeseburgers and chili flies overwhelms him and his digestive system. But I have a feeling he’s a lock for 300, if not 350.
Carlos Zambrano – 108-74 – Age 29. What a difference a year makes. On the plus side, he’s still not 30 and is pretty close to the pace needed to reach 300. On the negative side, he’s a * emotional train wreck and a right-handed pitcher with career control problems. Given the size of his contract, you have to figure that he’ll get another chance to return to the rotation. But this guy doesn’t scream longevity.
Mark Buehrle – 144-105 – Age 31. His numbers suggest he should have more wins. 6 games in 2009 in which he went six or more innings, allowed 2 or fewer runs, and took either a loss or a no-decision. In 2008, that happened 7 times. In 2007, 4 times. So, basically, playing for an inconsistent White Sox offense is costing Buehrle 5 wins a season. Ouch.
Jake Peavy – 102-74 – Age 29 – Once again, what a difference a year makes. When I wrote up my research last season, Peavy was on the DL with a minor injury. I ended up writing: “I think we all know what has to happen for Peavy to have a shot at this: get the hell out of San Diego.” Well, he got out of San Diego right before they got good and he didn’t really upgrade; the White Sox play in a more competitive division and have a craptastic offense. And this Peavy isn’t necessarily that Peavy, the guy who from 2004 to 2008 notched a 2.95 ERA and put 1010 K’s against 292 BB’s in only 968.2 innings. That guy should have had a way better record than 92-68 (his career record with the Padres from 2002 until 2009). The good news for baseball fans is that Peavy might return to that kind of form. This season, his April was terrible–an .861 opposing OPS and a 20-22 BB-K ratio, translating into a 7.85 ERA. May was just an unlucky month, his incredible 5-40 BB-K ratio and his .279 opposing OBP somehow (7 HR’s) into a 5.09 ERA. But June was kind to Peavy–a realistic 8-29 BB-K ratio and stellar opponent splits of .194-.245-.279. Just as hope emerged, however, Peavy detached a lat muscle (seriously?) and will miss the rest of the year. As talented as he is, I’m starting to wonder if a long career isn’t in the stars for Peavy. Two lost seasons to injury, and probably 25 lost wins to a lousy Padres team are likely to keep him from every sniffing 250 wins, let alone 300.
Johan Santana 130 – 65 – Age 31 – Santana is two years older than Sabathia, Zambrano, or Peavy, and that makes any chance at 300 much more unlikely. To put it in perspective, presuming he will pitch for another 11 years, he would have to win more games over the second half of his career than he did over the first half. And as any ESPN color man will rush to tell you, his fastball isn’t what it once was. Think Pedro Martinez in his 30′s. Santana was never as high as Pedro, but he also probably won’t far as fall. Why? Because he’s a lefty with an excellent off-speed pitch. Jamie Moyer and Tom Glavine are two reasons not to completely remove him from the 300 win club. Lefties can last forever.
Roy Halladay 159 – 84 – Age 33 – HOW THE HELL IS THIS GUY 11-8 THIS SEASON? Seriously, his ERA is 2.28. I’m not really a big Phillie fan unless my friend Dan is around, but the Phillies are putting a pretty big dent into Halladay’s pursuit of 300. When you’re 33 years old and behind the pace, every win counts. Looking through the game log, Halladay should be 15-4. My research last year pointed to Randy Johnson as an outlier to the expected 300 wins pace. Johnson only had 75 wins by the age of 30, yet went on to win over 300. I think Halladay could have a similar trajectory–but come on Phillies, do your part.
Josh Beckett 107 – 69 – Age 30 – At 30, Beckett is about 18 wins behind the pace, probably not a good side for a guy that struggles to start 33 games a year. I still think Beckett has an outside shot at this because he plays for Boston (and you can see this just by looking at his W-L record next to his ERA, no need for fancy stats, the Sox score runs). This year Beckett has missed a number of starts and has catalogued all of 3 decisions by July 28th. Not good.
Here’s two new additions to my list:
Justin Verlander 77 – 49 – Age 27 – Ok, its really early in his career to put him in this discussion. But I think this guy has “horse” written all over him. And while his 2008 was a 11-17 disaster, that season stands out as an aberration in an otherwise strong career. He’s 12-6 through 21 this year (on pace for around 18-9). While it is early in his career, he’s ahead of the requisite 300 win pace by a pretty wide margin.
Andy Pettitte 240 – 137 – Age 38 – I hate this guy. No, I’ve never met him in person. But he’s not just a Yankee, he’s kind of the Yankee. Or, at the very least, a benefit of the Yankee effect. Cause, you see, he’s really not that good a pitcher. But if you pitch innings for the Yanks, you are going to win tons of games. This is probably the best season of his career–it will be interesting to see how he pitches when he returns from the DL. I’ve already noted that lefties can last forever, and so there’s not really a reason why Pettitte can’t pitch another six seasons (yuck), or until he’s 44. Even if he didn’t win another game this season, he would only have to win 10 games a year. Pitching for the Yankees, he should have 10 wins by the All-Star break.
[And, in the interest of objectivity, transparency, or self-reflection, I understand that the only difference between my assessment of Beckett and my disdain of Pettitte is the uniform they wear.]
Guys that have enough wins to mention but no shot of reaching 300:
Barry Zito 141 – 112 – Age 32 He’s a lefty. He’s won 141 games by age 32 (remember that 300 pace suggests winning 125 by age 30). But all the sabermetric or sophisticated statistical evaluations I’ve read this summer suggest that his 2010 success is largely a mirage. At his core, he’s still that 4.56 ERA guy whose pitched for the Giants the past 3 years. One other thing in his favor– he just doesn’t get hurt. And he tosses so slowly that we might be talking a future Jamie Moyer.
John Garland 126 -109 – Age 30. I can’t believe I am looking at John Garland’s baseball reference page. But, somehow, this guy is on pace for 300 games. Seriously. He is. Will he continue on this pace? Every fiber of my being says “no.” But, in terms of the list above, only Sabathia is technically more likely to reach 300. How? Well Garland was one of the few pitchers of this generation who was rushed to the majors (he started 13 games at 20 years old). And, unlike Buerhle, he got out of Chicago before they started to stink. Wait, Jesus Christ, I’ve almost talked myself into thinking he belongs in this discussion. I’m going to stop right now.
A Guy who is probably too young to talk about but still worth noting:
Felix Hernandez 65 – 48 – Age 24 – Too bad he’s wasting a great season on a terrible team. But he might be a mini-Sabathia. If this guy goes to the Yankees, I’ll be pretty pissed.
I started this project last season because I was sick of hearing that no one would ever win 300 games again. Sabathia’s career thus far suggests that’s ludicrous, I’d be more surprised if he didn’t win 300 games. Last season, however, there were a few other pitchers who had a strong change to join the club with Sabathia. Just one year later both Zambrano and Peavy feel like impossible long shots. Halladay’s strong performance in Philadelphia suggests he might be the next Randy Johnson, a late-blooming 300 game winner.
Is This Thing On?
Hey baseball blog. Um, sorry to have neglected you so long. I still think about you. And I visit you a few times to click some of the links in your sidebar. But I always feel a bit ashamed at how empty you feel. So here goes a quick post.
This is an odd season to be a Red Sox fan. I am happy that we are in third place?
No, because I thought we would be in second place, watching an injury plagued Yankees pitching staff fall to pieces. As of today, the Sox are 6.5 back of a powerhouse Yankee team.
Yes, because there’s not many teams that could lose their starting left fielder, starting center fielder, starting right fielder, 4th outfielder, starting second baseman, starting catcher, back-up catcher, #1 starter, #4 starter, and #5 starter in a season and still post a 58-44 record while being second in the league in runs scored.
The Sox are getting healthy now–Beckett had another great performance today against an Angels team that usually gives him fits; Martinez has looked pretty good in his return; Buchholz is getting back into rhythm; Ellsbury is playing well in his rehab stint and could rejoin the team in another week or two.
The Rays have been solid this year, but their offense strikes out way too much to be considered elite. Their pitching staff has a number of young arms on the back end of the rotation; I think Sox fans can hope that those guys break down or wear out as the 162 game grind extends into the later months. In other words, I think a healthy Sox team can catch the Rays.
Of course, my dream scenario is that the Sox and the Rays push the Yanks out of the playoffs. That looks like a long shot at this point–but there’s still a chance that Sabbathia’s arm finally falls off.
Here’s Why Fantasy Baseball Will Drive You Crazy
Your struggling team finally looks like they have put it all together. You are leading a week-long contest and are about to jump from 4th place to perhaps 2nd place. And then Sunday happens–your team goes a combined 4 for 31 (after a blistering 7 for 36 Saturday). And, to add insult to injury, you end up benching a struggling player (in this case Aaron Hill) on the day that he breaks out (3/4, 2B, HR, BB). Result? A 9-15 week and a trip back to 6th place (45-47-8 for the season).
F-r-u-s-t-r-a-t-i-n-g.
That’s pretty much the word for my early season. My third, fourth, fifth, and sixth round picks have all gotten off to slow starts (Justin Upton, Victor Martinez, Aaron Hill, and Chone Figgins). I’m still for the most part patient with them, but its really beginning to cost me. I play in a league with only 22 man rosters, so its hard to dedicate a bench spot to a back-up catcher. Although, if Martinez doesn’t improve soon, I’ll have to.
For any fantasy player who makes their way here, let me recommend fangraphs; I track my team there. What’s nice about fangraphs is the plate discipline section–it will show you which of your players are getting unlucky and which are swinging themselves into bad luck. Consider it BABIP on roids. In my case, it suggests that Aaron Hill is merely getting unlucky (he’s still swinging at strikes at the same rate as previous seasons) and that Chone Figgins isn’t being aggressive enough (swinging at only 31% of all pitches against a lifetime 41%, and only swinging at 48.8% of strikes as opposed to a lifetime rate of 62.1%). It also suggests that Victor Martinez will be fine, since his line drive rate is over his career average (25.2% so far this season) and his BABIP is only .241 (his career BABIP is .311, so it should begin to return toward the mean). My only real concern thus far is with Upton–his contact rates are all slightly worse than last year. Here’s to hoping that’s an effect of our relatively small sample ize…
This is only my second season in fantasy baseball, and my first time in an 8 team league. Magnified by the small roster size and the unlimited transactions, free agency is a large part of the game. I could put together a pretty strong roster just out of the guys available in free agency. So, some of the players I took a risk on were a mistake (like the two shortstops, Cabrera and Escobar) since there are so many quality players available after the draft (I picked up Rafael Furcal and, after his injury, Stephen Drew). I will adjust my draft strategy accordingly next season–draft the sure commodities (especially dominant closers and starters) and keep a close eye on the “longshots” during the season’s opening weeks. A ten man team requires that you identify and draft sleepers; an eight man league allows you the benefit of acquiring sleepers after the draft.
I’m enjoying this season, though, and fantasy baseball continues to get me more involved with following the sport. I enjoy the sport, and am glad to have this prompting me to put more of my free time toward it.
Ryan Howard Contract, Take 2
The Red Sox aren’t really a comfy topic right now. So here’s a second post on the Ryan Howard deal. Fangraphs compares Howard’s contract to other historic WAR (wins above replacement) and figures that a “reasonable” projection for Howard’s contract would have been right around 77 million dollars–far below the 125 million he’s ensured.
They also look more closely at the WAR numbers for top players in their mid-30′s and conclude:
So, you have a one-third chance of being Jim Thome, a one-third chance of being Frank Thomas, and a one-third chance of being Mo Vaughn.
Ryan Howard was paid like he had a 100% chance of being Jim Thome.
Oops.
Here’s to Hoping Ryan Howard Ages Better than David Ortiz
I’m pretty sure the title to this post says everything I have to say on the matter. Both players are beloved in their respective markets. Both players signed lucrative extensions after their 30th birthday. If there is a difference: Ortiz’s contract (12.5 million per year) is half of Howard’s contract (25 million per year)–and Ortiz was considered something of a bargain when he signed that deal. Compared to A-Rod’s monstrous contract for similar production, it seemed as if the Red Sox were locking up one of the game’s most dominant hitters for a nice price. Now Howard will essentially make the same money as Rodriguez. Questions regarding the wisdom of Howard’s deal are flying around before the ink even has a chance to dry.
If the 1/2 hour of ESPN I listened to on the ride to work is indicative of how today’s response to Howard’s deal has gone, then its probably cliche to remark that big, long swinging sluggers usually don’t age well. So, Phillie fans, I’ll say it again:
Here’s to hoping Ryan Howard ages better than David Ortiz.
Tebow a Character Pick?
Hey, I like football too. And I cross-posted this one with my personal (non-baseball) blog. Here’s what I wrote this morning:
I have nothing against ethos, and I’m sure, after recent events, Josh McDaniels is looking forward to working with a contentious, diligent, and respectful player. As one of the many talking heads I listened to this morning said: Tebow is never going to say an improper word back to his coach. If you listen to any commentary this morning, then you are going to be fed the rationale that Tebow was picked over “better” quarterbacks because he is a nice guy.
But I would quickly like to suggest that I think Tebow was picked ahead of Clausen and McCoy because he is a dynamic player who, in the hands of the right coach, could flourish in the NFL. His unique skill set translates perfectly into a hybrid/wildcat offense. And remember, too, that Tebow trained under Urban Meyer. Belichick spent a great deal of time with Meyer to learn that offense, and that time directly translated into Tom Brady’s success in the shotgun (the Pats use the shotgun more than any other team). Who was the offense coordinator while the Pats were doing all that shotgunning? Oh yeah, it was Josh McDaniels.
Of course, Tebow is a risky pick, and, until very recently, option-inspired offenses have been terrible in the NFL. But I’ll admit that I was secretly hoping the Pats drafted Tebow, and I will be rooting for him to succeed in Denver, if only because it will make Mel Kiper (et al) look foolish.
Thank You Mr. McDonald
In my last post, I speculated that the Sox might call up Spring Training star Josh Reddick. Instead, they called up a minor leaguer that I had never heard of (and, considering I pay attention to the minor league system, that’s saying something). But, thank goodness. After a four game whooping, including a 0-32 with RISP slump, Sox nation needed a lift.
2-2 with a HR and 4 RBI make for a pretty darn nice lift. Welcome to Boston Darnell McDonald.
Given his heroics, I spent a few minutes today to familiarize myself with Mr. McDonald. He’s a career minor leaguer who’s been in professional baseball since the age of 19. He’s got speed (225 career minor league SB to 81 CS), but I would speculate that contact issues (career .272 BA, .333 OBP, 1076 K’s in 5136 PA). Like Crash Davis, he’s had a few runs in the show (Baltimore in 2004, Minnesota in 2007, and 47 games with Cincy last year). At 31 years old, he’s probably not going to be a ROY candidate. But, even if this is only his 15 minutes of fame, Mr. McDonald is shining bright with a lot of Red Sox fans this Wednesday.
And, yes, Rob, I am repressing any further mention of the terrible tragedy that took place this past weekend.
Update:
A friend sent me a link to Bug & Cranks offering an Orioles-ian perspective on Darnell McDonald. Hint: their not too thankful.
Make Way for Reddick? And a Few Other Early Season Thoughts
Lunch break on a Friday, so I’ll throw up a few responses to the early Sox season. Its too soon for any real reflection, so these come more in the form of questions.
Are You Nervous About Big Papi?
I am, and not necessarily because of his low starting numbers. I am more concerned about his lashing out at the media following questions on his low starting numbers. That lash out speaks to me–it tells me that the normally easy-going, gregarious, and confident Papi is sensitive. Last year, of course, Papi was one of the best hitters in the league after June first. He was also one of the worst before then. Let’s hope we don’t have to wait until June 1st this year.
Is That Josh Reddick I See?
So Cameron looks to be out for at least a week, if not three, and Ellsbury is still a bit dinged up. Bill Hall showed yesterday that center field is really not an option. It looks like the Sox will have to make a roster move with a call-up. Right now, Reddick, who was real hot in Spring Training, is struggling early–hitting only .137 (4 for 29). In my 2010 Sox Season Storylines, I mentioned that Reddick is likely to compete for Drew’s job after 2011, and I’m hoping, despite his slow AAA start, that he gets a chance to swing with the big club for a week or two.
Can Victor Martinez Catch?
I keep reminding myself that its very early. But I also questioned whether Martinez would be able to replace Varitek as the catcher for this staff. The early response seems to be “no”–but, of course, its way too early. Its early. Just keep telling myself that its early. Its early. Don’t compare their CERA from 2009 (which, by the way, is 5.22 vs 3.87)….
One more thing on Martinez–has anyone else noticed that, unlike Tek, he just can’t seem to keep his glove still? I want to start watching other big league catchers more closely to see if, like Martinez, they have difficulty offering an immobile target for pitchers.
Remember Dice-K?
It will be very interesting to see what happens with the rotation next week. Dice-K’s rehab starts in Pawtucket went very well (in 11 innings he hasn’t given up a run, walked only one, and struck out 5). I’d love to see the pitch count numbers on those games, given Dice-K’s efficiency problems. While I am a bit concerned to see he’s only struck out 5 in 11 innings against AAA competition, you have to wonder if he won’t get a shot in the rotation and send either Wakefield or Buchholz to the pen.
Well, so much for the lunch break. Enjoy the weekend.
Ontology of Baseball Pitches
Its too soon in the season for me to write anything serious about the Red Sox, and I already bored people with my fantasy team. I’ll make up for it by calling attention to a great article by Max Marchi over at The Hardball Times on classifying pitches. Essentially, Marchi uses the MLB database of PITCH/fx numbers (which tracks the speed and break of every pitch thrown) to expand the traditional 6 categories for pitchers (fastball, curveball, slider, sinker, change-up) into 14 categories.
Here they are with his brief comments:
- No. 1 – Slow change or, as they used to say in the past, simply slow ball.
- No. 2 – Hard curve, tight curve.
- No. 3 – Slider.
- No. 4 – Heater (hummer, blazer…).
- No. 5 – Sinker.
- No. 6 – Floater, junk, feather.
- No. 7 – Cutter, sailer.
- No. 8 – This one tails to the throwing arm side. I would suggest tailing fastball, but according to Neyer and James, they used to call a pitch from a righty that runs into a right-handed batter a riding fastball.
- No. 9 – I really don’t like the terms hard change and slow change, so I expect good suggestions from you for this and No. 1.
- No. 10 – Slow curve, drop curve.
- No. 11 – Low-arm-angle pitches. How do we call them as a group? Sidearmers? Submariners?
- No. 12 – Okay, this is a fastball that’s not quite fast (high 80s), but stays up. I go with rising fastball.
- No. 13 – Slurve.
- No. 14 – Similar to No. 12, but 4-5 mph faster. Hopper comes to my mind.
Take a trip over there if you have time to peruse the whole article (its quality) and offer a few naming suggestions in the comments.
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